Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
APEA · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
APEA 2-0 Ermis
Original prediction
APEA
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 40.4% | 36.5% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 28.1% | 30.1% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 31.5% | 33.4% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
APEA
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
APEA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
APEAWLDWD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
ErmisWWLLW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
APEAErmis
41.7Attack50.0
75.0Defence83.3
66.7Form75.0
64.8Power70.9
1.11xG1.06