Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Doxa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
APEA 3-3 Doxa
Original prediction
Doxa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.57 | 25.7% | 34.0% | 8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.5% | 25.8% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 46.9% | 40.3% | -6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.33 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Doxa
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Doxa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
APEAWWWLD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DoxaLLWDL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
APEADoxa
43.7Attack51.7
56.3Defence56.3
44.8Form46.0
49.4Power51.9
1.22xG1.24