Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Charleroi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Antwerp 3-0 Charleroi
Original prediction
Charleroi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.03 | 23.1% | 14.6% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 24.3% | 17.4% | -6.9 pts |
| Away | 1.77 | 52.6% | 68.0% | 15.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.0–39%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Charleroi
Probability
68.0%
Model confidence
68.0%
Charleroi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AntwerpWLLLL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CharleroiWWWWL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AntwerpCharleroi
50.0Attack66.7
16.7Defence70.8
29.2Form87.5
34.1Power77.5
0.94xG2.94