Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Antioquia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Antioquia are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Aserri FC are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Antioquia hold a 17.4-point power-rating edge (44.1 v 26.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.4% in the Liga de Ascenso, while Antioquia holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Antioquia
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Antioquia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 12 · avg 0.20/2.40
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40