Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AD Sarchí · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Antioquia are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while AD Sarchí are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and AD Sarchí hold a 36.2-point power-rating edge (44.1 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.5% in the Liga de Ascenso, while AD Sarchí holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
AD Sarchí
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
AD Sarchí has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00