Antigua and Barbudavs
Aruba
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/6/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Antigua and Barbuda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Antigua and Barbuda 3-2 Aruba
Original prediction
Antigua and Barbuda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.1% | 41.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 27.8% | 26.3% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 29.1% | 32.2% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Antigua and Barbuda
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Antigua and Barbuda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40