Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Antequera · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Antequera 2-0 Real Jaén
Original prediction
Antequera
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 44.1% | 40.6% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.4% | 29.8% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.42 | 26.5% | 29.6% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Antequera
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Antequera has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AntequeraDDLWL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Real JaénWWDWL
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AntequeraReal Jaén
41.2Attack66.7
61.4Defence33.3
49.1Form33.3
52.6Power45.3
1.23xG0.93