Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Antequera · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Antequera 0-0 Alcorcon, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Antequera 1-1 Alcorcon
Original prediction
Antequera
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.67 | 33.9% | 37.7% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 30.4% | 30.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 35.7% | 31.8% | -3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.97 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Projected Score
Antequera 0–0 Alcorcon
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Antequera
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Antequera has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AntequeraLWLWW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AlcorconDDLLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AntequeraAlcorcon
41.2Attack0.0
61.4Defence100.0
49.1Form33.3
52.6Power45.3
1.11xG0.84