Anstey Nomadsvs
Alvechurch
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern Central · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alvechurch · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Anstey Nomads 2-2 Alvechurch
Original prediction
Alvechurch
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 42.9% | 35.3% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 27.6% | 26.1% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.01 | 29.5% | 38.6% | 9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.22 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Alvechurch
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Alvechurch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
GF 12 · GA 1 · avg 2.40/0.20