League CupLeague Cup
Tuesday, 14 July 2026Last updated 10:02
Annan Athletic

Annan Athletic

Home
L
05
Full time
Dundee

Dundee

Away
W
Galabank
GoalVio prediction
56% confidence
Dundee(56%)
Most likely exact score1-2
Prediction correct— Result: Dundee
Win probability
Annan Athletic
22%
Draw
22%
Dundee
56%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Annan Athletic
9
Dundee
100
Defence
Annan Athletic
0
Dundee
91
Momentum
Annan Athletic
0
Dundee
100
Danger (xG)
Annan Athletic
0.00
Dundee
4.50
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.24 xG for Annan Athletic and 2.30 xG for Dundee — meaningful and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-2 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Annan Athletic holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's strong attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 3.54 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 1-2 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Annan Athletic's Attack Score (9) vs Dundee's Defensive Stability (91) and Dundee's attack (100) vs Annan Athletic's defence (0) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Annan Athletic)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Dundee)
4.50
avg per match
xG against (Annan Athletic)
4.50
avg per match
xG against (Dundee)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic
L
DundeeDundee
WL

Probability breakdown

56% confidence
Annan Athletic22%
Draw22%
Dundee56%

Dundee leads with 56% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Dundee Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-2

Annan Athletic host Dundee in League Cup. Annan Athletic have recorded WLLLLL in recent matches while Dundee arrive with a run of LDWWLW. These sides have met 2 times recently, averaging 4.5 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.30 expected goals for Dundee against 1.24 for Annan Athletic — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 📈 Recent Form Dundee arrive in better recent form — 3 wins from 10 matches (LDWWLW) against Annan Athletic's 1. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.
: ⚽ Attacking Efficiency Annan Athletic have averaged 1.29 goals per game recently while Dundee have managed 2.38. Dundee have been the more prolific side — a factor the model weighs in its Dundee win projection.

Why GoalVio backs this

Dundee are generating a commanding xG advantage — 2.30 projected against 1.24 for Annan Athletic. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.07 is the clearest signal in the model that Dundee are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Dundee are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • Dundee have been conceding 1.56 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Head to head

Annan Athletic 0Draws 01 Dundee
Avg goals: 5.0
14 Jul 2026
Annan Athletic
L05
Dundee

Recent form

Annan Athletic

Annan Athletic

L
vs Dundee
14 Jul 2026
05
Dundee

Dundee

W
@ Annan Athletic
14 Jul 2026
50
L
@ Kilmarnock
12 May 2026
13

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Annan Athletic vs Dundee?

GoalVio's model predicts Dundee to win with 56% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Annan Athletic vs Dundee?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-2.

Will both teams score in Annan Athletic vs Dundee?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Annan Athletic vs Dundee?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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