Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Angola · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Angola 3-1 Malawi
Original prediction
Angola
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 66.4% | 41.5% | -24.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.3% | 27.8% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 8.83 | 10.3% | 30.7% | 20.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Angola
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Angola has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AngolaDWDWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MalawiWDLLD
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
AngolaMalawi
0.0Attack66.7
100.0Defence66.7
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power80.3
1.11xG1.27