Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marseille · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Angers 2-5 Marseille
Original prediction
Marseille
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.46 | 27.5% | 32.3% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 25.4% | 25.6% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.02 | 47.0% | 42.1% | -5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Marseille
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Marseille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AngersLWDLW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MarseilleLWLLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AngersMarseille
38.9Attack50.0
44.4Defence55.6
38.9Form33.3
42.1Power45.5
1.28xG1.45