Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lorient · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Angers 0-0 Lorient
Original prediction
Lorient
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 31.6% | 27.9% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 29.2% | 26.9% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 39.2% | 45.2% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Lorient
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Lorient has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AngersLLWDL
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LorientWWLDW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AngersLorient
42.9Attack33.3
28.6Defence71.4
33.3Form52.4
36.9Power55.5
0.95xG1.43