Anderlechtvs
Lyon
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 9/16/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Anderlecht · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Anderlecht 1-2 Lyon
Original prediction
Anderlecht
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.10 | 30.5% | 42.9% | 12.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 26.6% | 23.8% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 42.9% | 33.3% | -9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Anderlecht
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Anderlecht has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80