Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
América W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
América W 3-1 Tijuana W
Original prediction
América W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.05 | 87.8% | 66.8% | -21.0 pts |
| Draw | 10.89 | 8.5% | 17.5% | 9.0 pts |
| Away | 24.31 | 3.8% | 15.7% | 11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
América W
Probability
66.8%
Model confidence
66.8%
América W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
América WWWWWW
GF 28 · GA 1 · avg 5.60/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 5/5
Tijuana WLWLLW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
América WTijuana W
100.0Attack58.3
91.7Defence41.7
100.0Form25.0
92.4Power40.3
2.82xG1.18