Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
América W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
América W 2-1 Pachuca W
Original prediction
América W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 70.9% | 79.0% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.34 | 17.0% | 12.7% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 7.49 | 12.1% | 8.3% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–010%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
América W
Probability
79.0%
Model confidence
79.0%
América W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
América WLWDWW
GF 17 · GA 9 · avg 3.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Pachuca WLWLLL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
América WPachuca W
100.0Attack46.7
63.3Defence50.0
83.3Form33.3
77.9Power44.1
3.19xG0.86