Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
América W · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (12%), 4-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
América W 2-2 Atlas W
Original prediction
América W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.03 | 90.8% | 83.4% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 14.63 | 6.4% | 10.0% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 33.16 | 2.8% | 6.6% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 13.63 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–012%
- 2.4–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
América W
Probability
83.4%
Model confidence
83.4%
América W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
América WWWWWW
GF 22 · GA 5 · avg 4.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Atlas WWLLWD
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
América WAtlas W
100.0Attack33.3
76.2Defence28.6
100.0Form38.1
88.2Power35.9
3.90xG0.70