Copa RioCopa Rio
Wednesday, 15 July 2026Last updated 10:12
América RJ

América RJ

Home
L
01
Full time
Nova Iguaçu

Nova Iguaçu

Away
W
GoalVio prediction
47% confidence
América RJ(47%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction missed— Result: Nova Iguaçu
Win probability
América RJ
47%
Draw
23%
Nova Iguaçu
29%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
América RJ
9
Nova Iguaçu
34
Defence
América RJ
66
Nova Iguaçu
91
Momentum
América RJ
0
Nova Iguaçu
100
Danger (xG)
América RJ
0.00
Nova Iguaçu
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (América RJ)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Nova Iguaçu)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (América RJ)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Nova Iguaçu)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
América RJAmérica RJ
LLWWD
Nova IguaçuNova Iguaçu
WW

Probability breakdown

47% confidence
América RJ47%
Draw23%
Nova Iguaçu29%

América RJ leads with 47% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

América RJ head into this in Copa Rio fixture in mixed form (L), while Nova Iguaçu arrive in mixed form (W). América RJ have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Nova Iguaçu over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — América RJ (66/100) and Nova Iguaçu (91/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

América RJ have won 2 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game at home. Nova Iguaçu have been excellent on the road, winning all 1 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per away game.

Nova Iguaçu have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 1.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects América RJ to win with 47% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: América RJ 4735%, Draw 2343%, Nova Iguaçu 2922%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

América RJ 0Draws 01 Nova Iguaçu
Avg goals: 1.0
15 Jul 2026
América RJ
L01
Nova Iguaçu

Recent form

América RJ

América RJ

L
vs Nova Iguaçu
15 Jul 2026
01
L
@ Bonsucesso
1 Jul 2026
23
W
vs Cabofriense
10 Jun 2026
21
W
vs Madureira
16 May 2026
20
D
@ Pérolas Negras
13 May 2026
00
Nova Iguaçu

Nova Iguaçu

W
@ América RJ
15 Jul 2026
10
W
vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ
16 May 2026
10

Frequently asked questions

Who will win América RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?

GoalVio's model predicts América RJ to win with 47% confidence.

What is the predicted score for América RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in América RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in América RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more