Amorebietavs
Portugalete
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Amorebieta · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Amorebieta 1-0 Portugalete, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Amorebieta 1-2 Portugalete
Original prediction
Amorebieta
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 15:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.1% | 44.3% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.6% | 29.0% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.29 | 27.3% | 26.7% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Projected Score
Amorebieta 1–0 Portugalete
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Amorebieta
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Amorebieta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20