Amorebietavs
Ourense CF
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/26/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Amorebieta · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Amorebieta 0-1 Ourense CF
Original prediction
Amorebieta
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 41.6% | 39.0% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 29.4% | 29.0% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.07 | 29.0% | 32.0% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Amorebieta
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Amorebieta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20