Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Amora · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Amora 0-0 Lagoa, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Amora 1-1 Lagoa
Original prediction
Amora
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 52.3% | 41.8% | -10.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.9% | 30.2% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 4.15 | 21.9% | 28.1% | 6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.52 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.5 pts
Projected Score
Amora 0–0 Lagoa
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Amora
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Amora has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AmoraWLDLW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LagoaLDWLD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AmoraLagoa
41.7Attack25.0
75.0Defence75.0
58.3Form41.7
60.3Power50.3
1.12xG0.76