Ammanford AFCvs
Penybont
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/18/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penybont · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Ammanford AFC 0-2 Penybont, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ammanford AFC 1-5 Penybont
Original prediction
Penybont
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 13.03 | 6.9% | 6.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.85 | 15.3% | 12.9% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 1.15 | 77.8% | 81.1% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Projected Score
Ammanford AFC 0–2 Penybont
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Penybont
Probability
81.1%
Model confidence
81.1%
Penybont has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ammanford AFCDLLLD
GF 3 · GA 15 · avg 0.60/3.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PenybontWWWDD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Ammanford AFCPenybont
22.2Attack55.6
14.8Defence74.1
11.1Form77.8
20.0Power71.8
0.50xG2.79