Ammanford AFCvs
Holywell
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 10/3/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Holywell · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ammanford AFC 2-1 Holywell
Original prediction
Holywell
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.76 | 32.5% | 34.2% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 25.8% | 24.7% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 41.7% | 41.1% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Holywell
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Holywell has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 17 · avg 0.60/3.40
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00