Ammanford AFCvs
Caernarfon Town
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/11/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caernarfon Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-3 (10%), 0-2 (10%), 1-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ammanford AFC 0-5 Caernarfon Town
Original prediction
Caernarfon Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 13.32 | 6.8% | 13.0% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 6.45 | 14.1% | 17.1% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.15 | 79.0% | 69.9% | -9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–310%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–39%
Predicted outcome
Caernarfon Town
Probability
69.9%
Model confidence
69.9%
Caernarfon Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 12 · avg 0.20/2.40
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20