Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Amkar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Amkar 2-3 Tyumen
Original prediction
Amkar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 41.8% | 41.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.0% | 24.2% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.99 | 30.2% | 34.0% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Amkar
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Amkar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AmkarDDLWW
GF 13 · GA 12 · avg 2.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TyumenWWDWL
GF 16 · GA 8 · avg 3.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AmkarTyumen
83.3Attack81.0
55.6Defence57.1
72.2Form61.9
67.6Power64.8
1.89xG1.69