GGOALVIO

Brazil · Paulista Série B · 8/9/2026, 1:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Mediumconfidence

America SP are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Independente SP are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and independente SP hold a 7.2-point power-rating edge (66.9 v 74.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely result in the Paulista Série B, favouring a draw with 14.6% confidence, a 41% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

32.8%

Model confidence

14.6%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

America SPWDWDW

GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Independente SPWLWWW

GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
America SPIndependente SP
51.0Attack88.2
80.4Defence78.4
66.7Form76.5
66.9Power74.1
0.85xG1.17
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