GGOALVIO

Brazil · Serie A · 4/15/2023, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Fluminense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-2

Highconfidence

America Mineiro are 3W-1D-0L in their last 4 (WWWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.75 conceded, while Fluminense are 2W-0D-0L in their last 2 (WW), averaging 3.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 6 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Fluminense hold a 25.3-point power-rating edge (31.9 v 57.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 60.8% in the Serie A, while Fluminense holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Fluminense

Probability

60.8%

Model confidence

60.8%

Fluminense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

America MineiroWWWD

GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.75

BTTS 3/4O2.5 2/4
FluminenseWW

GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 3.00/0.50

BTTS 1/2O2.5 2/2
America MineiroFluminense
36.8Attack49.3
28.9Defence59.4
21.1Form55.1
31.9Power57.2
0.89xG2.07
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