Serie BSerie B
Friday, 17 July 2026Last updated 12:37
America Mineiro

America Mineiro

Home
DDL
11
Full time
Ceara

Ceara

Away
DDL
GoalVio prediction
44% confidence
America Mineiro(44%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction missed— Result: Draw
Win probability
America Mineiro
44%
Draw
30%
Ceara
26%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
America Mineiro
23
Ceara
14
Defence
America Mineiro
66
Ceara
66
Momentum
America Mineiro
22
Ceara
22
Danger (xG)
America Mineiro
1.28
Ceara
0.22
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (America Mineiro)
1.28
avg per match
xG for (Ceara)
0.22
avg per match
xG against (America Mineiro)
1.18
avg per match
xG against (Ceara)
1.03
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
America MineiroAmerica Mineiro
DDLLL
CearaCeara
DDLLL

Probability breakdown

44% confidence
America Mineiro44%
Draw30%
Ceara26%

America Mineiro leads with 44% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

America Mineiro head into this in Serie B fixture in mixed form (DDL), while Ceara arrive in mixed form (DDL). America Mineiro have a 0% win rate across their last 3 matches, compared to 0% for Ceara over 3 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — America Mineiro (66/100) and Ceara (66/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

America Mineiro have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 3 home games. They average 0.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per home match. Ceara have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 3 away matches. They average 0.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per away game.

America Mineiro have generated 1.28 xG per game recently while conceding 1.18 xG per match, underperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches. Ceara have generated 0.67 xG per game recently while conceding 1.30 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

The last 1 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 1 draw, averaging 2.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects America Mineiro to win with 44% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: America Mineiro 4429%, Draw 2978%, Ceara 2593%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

America Mineiro 0Draws 10 Ceara
Avg goals: 2.0BTTS in 1/1
17 Jul 2026
America Mineiro
D11
Ceara
xG 1.30.7

Recent form

America Mineiro

America Mineiro

D
vs Ceara
17 Jul 2026
11
xG 1.3
D
vs Londrina
13 Jul 2026
11
xG 2.1
L
@ Cuiaba
3 Jul 2026
01
xG 0.4
L
@ Operario-PR
27 Jun 2026
01
L
vs Criciuma
24 Jun 2026
01
Ceara

Ceara

D
@ America Mineiro
17 Jul 2026
11
xG 0.7
D
vs Athletic Club
14 Jul 2026
00
L
@ Goias
5 Jul 2026
02
L
@ Juventude
28 Jun 2026
02
L
vs Botafogo SP
20 Jun 2026
01

Frequently asked questions

Who will win America Mineiro vs Ceara?

GoalVio's model predicts America Mineiro to win with 44% confidence.

What is the predicted score for America Mineiro vs Ceara?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Ceara?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in America Mineiro vs Ceara?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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