Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beşiktaş · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Amed 3-2 Beşiktaş
Original prediction
Beşiktaş
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.88 | 24.3% | 34.5% | 10.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 25.0% | 25.2% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.85 | 50.7% | 40.3% | -10.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Beşiktaş
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Beşiktaş has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AmedWDWLW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
BeşiktaşWWWWL
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AmedBeşiktaş
80.0Attack80.0
66.7Defence73.3
66.7Form80.0
68.5Power76.8
1.52xG1.48