Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Amazonas are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Caxias are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Caxias hold a 6.1-point power-rating edge (49.0 v 55.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 26.7% in the Serie C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 25% BTTS chance and 16% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
26.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00