Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Şamaxı FK · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Şamaxı FK 1-0 Safa Baku, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Şamaxı FK 3-2 Safa Baku
Original prediction
Şamaxı FK
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.5% | 58.0% | 6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.8% | 24.7% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 4.17 | 21.7% | 17.3% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.5 pts
Projected Score
Şamaxı FK 1–0 Safa Baku
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Şamaxı FK
Probability
58.0%
Model confidence
58.0%
Şamaxı FK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Şamaxı FKDWDWD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Safa BakuLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 10 · avg 0.20/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Şamaxı FKSafa Baku
42.9Attack9.5
66.7Defence42.9
47.6Form14.3
53.7Power26.2
1.64xG0.59