Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Şamaxı FK · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Şamaxı FK 2-1 Araz
Original prediction
Şamaxı FK
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 47.6% | 39.1% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.1% | 29.7% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.71 | 24.3% | 31.2% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Şamaxı FK
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Şamaxı FK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Şamaxı FKDWDDL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ArazDLLLD
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Şamaxı FKAraz
30.5Attack33.3
57.1Defence33.3
34.3Form0.0
43.0Power26.7
1.05xG0.97