Amarantevs
União de Leiria
COMPLETEDPortugal · Segunda Liga · 9/13/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
União de Leiria · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Amarante 2-2 União de Leiria
Original prediction
União de Leiria
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 32.1% | 32.4% | 0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.9% | 29.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.40 | 38.0% | 38.0% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.04 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
União de Leiria
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
União de Leiria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00