Amarantevs
Portimonense
COMPLETEDPortugal · Segunda Liga · 10/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Amarante 0-0 Portimonense, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Amarante 1-2 Portimonense
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 36.0% | 34.7% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 30.5% | 31.8% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 33.5% | 33.5% | 0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Projected Score
Amarante 0–0 Portimonense
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.8%
Model confidence
34.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AmaranteWDLWD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PortimonenseWLLLD
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
AmarantePortimonense
27.8Attack22.2
55.6Defence66.7
27.8Form38.9
40.0Power44.8
0.83xG0.81