Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica B · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Amarante 1-0 Benfica B
Original prediction
Benfica B
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.88 | 31.8% | 33.7% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.9% | 28.6% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.33 | 39.3% | 37.7% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Benfica B
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Benfica B has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AmaranteDLLLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Benfica BDWWWW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AmaranteBenfica B
33.3Attack47.1
33.3Defence52.9
0.0Form44.1
23.7Power49.8
1.23xG1.34