Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Amagaju 0-0 Mukura, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Amagaju 1-2 Mukura
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.64 | 33.6% | 34.5% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.75 | 32.2% | 32.7% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 34.2% | 32.8% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Projected Score
Amagaju 0–0 Mukura
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.7%
Model confidence
34.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AmagajuDLWDL
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
MukuraLWDLD
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AmagajuMukura
22.2Attack33.3
88.9Defence83.3
44.4Form50.0
53.1Power56.2
0.83xG0.77