Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alverca · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Alverca are 1W-2D-1L in their last 4 (DDWL), averaging 1.50 scored and 1.75 conceded, while Academica are 1W-2D-0L in their last 3 (DWD), averaging 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 7 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Alverca hold an 8.7-point power-rating edge (64.4 v 55.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.2% in the Liga 3, while Alverca holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 24% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Alverca
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Alverca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.50/1.75
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 1.33/1.00