Alverca U19vs
Oriental U19
COMPLETEDPortugal · Júniores U19 · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oriental U19 · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alverca U19 2-1 Oriental U19
Original prediction
Oriental U19
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.90 | 30.9% | 26.3% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.6% | 26.3% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 41.5% | 47.4% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Oriental U19
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Oriental U19 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40