Alvechurchvs
Stourbridge
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern Central · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alvechurch · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alvechurch 0-0 Stourbridge
Original prediction
Alvechurch
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 49.8% | 64.5% | 14.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 25.7% | 20.0% | -5.8 pts |
| Away | 3.66 | 24.5% | 15.5% | -9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Alvechurch
Probability
64.5%
Model confidence
64.5%
Alvechurch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20