Alvechurchvs
Spalding United
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alvechurch · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alvechurch 4-0 Spalding United
Original prediction
Alvechurch
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 October 2026 at 10:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.80 | 32.4% | 39.4% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.1% | 25.2% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.19 | 41.5% | 35.4% | -6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Alvechurch
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Alvechurch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20