Alvechurchvs
Bury Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern Central · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alvechurch · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alvechurch 0-1 Bury Town
Original prediction
Alvechurch
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 44.6% | 41.6% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 27.8% | 27.1% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.26 | 27.6% | 31.3% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Alvechurch
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Alvechurch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00