Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alvarado · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alvarado 0-0 Atenas, with an exact score probability of 34%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alvarado 3-2 Atenas
Original prediction
Alvarado
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 57.5% | 48.2% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.3% | 35.4% | 7.1 pts |
| Away | 6.37 | 14.1% | 16.4% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Projected Score
Alvarado 0–0 Atenas
Exact score probability: 34%
Predicted outcome
Alvarado
Probability
48.2%
Model confidence
48.2%
Alvarado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlvaradoWDDWW
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
AtenasWDWWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AlvaradoAtenas
39.7Attack30.2
87.3Defence71.4
60.3Form52.4
62.8Power53.6
0.75xG0.36