Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celje · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-3 (13%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aluminij 0-2 Celje
Original prediction
Celje
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.66 | 19.5% | 9.2% | -10.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.3% | 14.5% | -7.8 pts |
| Away | 1.57 | 58.1% | 76.3% | 18.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–313%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Celje
Probability
76.3%
Model confidence
76.3%
Celje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AluminijLWWDL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CeljeLLDWW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AluminijCelje
34.3Attack69.4
34.3Defence68.5
28.7Form73.1
34.5Power70.6
0.62xG2.78