Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celje · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-2
Aluminij are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLDDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Celje are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DDDDL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Celje hold a 36.1-point power-rating edge (34.5 v 70.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 78.7% in the 1. SNL, while Celje holds the strongest overall chance at 79% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celje
Probability
78.7%
Model confidence
78.7%
Celje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00