Altrinchamvs
United of Manchester
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Altrincham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Altrincham 0-0 United of Manchester
Original prediction
Altrincham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 20:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 67.5% | 39.0% | -28.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.72 | 19.1% | 24.7% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 6.80 | 13.3% | 36.3% | 23.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Altrincham
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Altrincham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20