Altrinchamvs
Hartlepool
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/16/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hartlepool · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Altrincham 2-1 Hartlepool
Original prediction
Hartlepool
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.3% | 33.9% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.2% | 29.0% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 32.5% | 37.1% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Hartlepool
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Hartlepool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20