Altrinchamvs
Aldershot Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 10/10/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Altrincham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Altrincham 3-1 Aldershot Town
Original prediction
Altrincham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 49.5% | 36.8% | -12.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 25.1% | 27.4% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.59 | 25.4% | 35.8% | 10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Altrincham
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Altrincham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60