Altrinchamvs
AFC Hornchurch
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Altrincham · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Altrincham 3-0 AFC Hornchurch
Original prediction
Altrincham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.5% | 38.6% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.4% | 27.2% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.04 | 30.1% | 34.2% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Altrincham
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Altrincham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40