Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Altavilla 0-0 Luparense
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.63 | 25.1% | 33.9% | 8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.7% | 30.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 45.2% | 35.6% | -9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.07 · Draw 2.07 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.5%
Model confidence
35.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AltavillaWLDWL
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LuparenseDWWWD
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AltavillaLuparense
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.08xG0.92