Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almeria · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Almeria 1-0 Oviedo, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Almeria 2-2 Oviedo
Original prediction
Almeria
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 56.0% | 52.2% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.9% | 26.9% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.87 | 19.1% | 20.9% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.74 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Projected Score
Almeria 1–0 Oviedo
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Almeria
Probability
52.2%
Model confidence
52.2%
Almeria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlmeriaWWWWW
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
OviedoWWLWL
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AlmeriaOviedo
66.7Attack43.3
76.7Defence66.7
80.0Form56.7
75.1Power56.6
1.51xG0.57